川普四常识：戳破东西方旧意识形态的“窗户纸”
川普四常识：戳破东西方旧意识形态的“窗户纸”
Trump's Four Commonsenses：Piercing the "Window Paper" of Old Ideologies in East and West
钱 宏 Archer Hong Qian
长期以来，东西方政治精英共享一套高度相似的叙事结构：
用价值掩盖成本，用道德遮蔽结构，用话术替代账本，用意识形态回避现实问题。
川普之所以成为全球性争议人物，并非因为他“反建制”“反文明”，而是因为他说出了几条精英体系内部早已默认、却长期拒绝公开承认的结构性事实。这些事实不是立场判断，而是现实账本；不是意识形态命题，而是制度成本。
这四条“认知常识”，构成了当代政治话语中最难绕开的现实底盘。
一、长期贸易失衡与产业空心化，无法靠话术解决
美国长期承受巨额贸易逆差，制造业体系持续外移，中产阶层与产业工人系统性坍塌，中国长期低人权产品倾销。这不是“产业升级”，而是生产能力被结构性剥离，是年轻世代成长空间被系统性挤压。
代表权力和资本高高在上的旧精英叙事，将这一过程包装为：
“消费者福利最大化”
“全球资源最优配置”
“后工业社会自然转型”
但现实账本却是：
金融资本收益内部化
实体产业成本社会化
国民生产潜力抽空化
川普做的不是反全球化，而是指出一个被系统性掩盖的事实：
没有生产能力的金融繁荣，是透支型繁荣；没有产业基础的消费社会，是空心型文明；没有底层繁荣的权力扩张，是政客自欺欺人。
这不是意识形态问题，而是经济结构问题。
二、工作岗位外包不是技术升级，而是社会断层，低价倾销不是占便宜，而是互害机制
过去三十年，西方精英将产业外包为“效率提升”与“技术进步”，东方精英出口赚外汇描述为全球化红利，却回避了一个现实后果：
技术梯度断裂
社区经济塌陷
劳动尊严消失
极低人权成本
这不是转型失败的问题，而是系统性弃置的问题。
MAGA群体不是反现代化，中国年轻人躺平摆烂不是偷懒，而是经济全球化结构失衡中，唯一持续受损、没有上升空间却被否认的人，尤其是年轻人。
这恰恰揭示了一种制度外部性逻辑：
收益被沆瀣一气的资本与权力拿走，成本被普通社会成员承担；
赢家全球化，输家本地化。
这不是情绪政治，而是结构补偿要求。
三、安全公共品长期单边供给，不可能无限持续
战后七十余年，美国为欧洲与日本提供了近乎免费的国防安全、世界警察公共品，使其能够：
压缩军费
扩张福利国家
将财政资源用于国内政治回报
为殖官主义续命
而美国自身却同时承受：
财政压力
产业流失
社会分化
外敌渗透
这套结构被包装为：
“自由世界领导责任”
“价值联盟”
“文明担当”
“多元包容”
川普只是将其还原为一个经济事实：
任何长期失衡的公共品供给结构，都会引发成本回归。
这不是孤立主义，而是制度可持续性问题，不得不行“阻击型门罗主义”。
四、所谓国际规则体系，早已失去价值中立性
联合国、WTO、世卫组织等国际制度体系，本应协调合作，却逐步演化为：
用程序冻结现实结构调整
用规则限制真实权力变动
用道德包装利益固化
用价值话术约束承担成本的一方
川普拒绝以“价值”与“规则”之名继续承担结构性不对称成本，这并非破坏秩序，而是揭示：
当规则系统系统性偏离现实结构时，秩序本身就已经失效。
核心问题不在川普，而在旧意识形态体系破产
川普不是这个系统的异常值，而是旧意识形态话语系统破产后的症状呈现——他不但是戳破“窗户纸”，揭下“皇帝的新衣”的老小孩，而且是要安装“双层玻璃窗”——既透明一目了然，又坚固无处遁形——试图医治世纪病，解决问题的那个人，这本需要人配合，却遭遇旧秩序疯狂诋毁，把他当成问题来谩骂，来起哄，于是，闹得“川普综合症”无处不在。
真正失效的不是外交礼仪，而是：
用道德替代账本
用叙事遮蔽结构
用价值掩盖成本
用程序冻结现实
当现实成本无法再被叙事吸收，政治就从“管理共识”转向“重算账本”。
这不是什么民粹主义崛起，而是人之常情的现实主义，对意识形态的强制结算。
所以：川普不是破坏秩序，而是在迫使秩序重新定价
理解川普的意义，不在于支持或反对他，而在于理解他所戳破的那层“窗户纸”（也就“皇帝的新装”）：
全球化不是普世正义机制，而是结构性收益分配机制
规则不是价值中立的，而是成本分摊装置
精英叙事不是现实本身，而是现实的延迟表达
政治不是道德竞技，而是结构调整工程
战后七十年，欧美构建了一套几乎无需面对成本的制度幻觉体系；而川普所代表的，不是回到旧秩序，而是迫使世界承认：
旧秩序已经无法继续维持原价运行。
总之，勇敢坚持川普常识：
不是文明倒退，
而是现实清算。
不是不要秩序，
而是要新秩序！
川普不是问题，旧意识形态话语系统才是问题。
Trump's Four Commonsenses: Piercing the "Window Paper" of Old Ideologies in East and WestArcher Hong Qian
For a long time, political elites in the East and West have shared a highly similar narrative structure: Using values to cover costs, morals to obscure structures, rhetoric to substitute ledgers, and ideology to evade real problems.
Trump has become a global controversial figure not because he is "anti-establishment" or "anti-civilization," but because he articulated several structural facts that the elite system has long tacitly acknowledged yet refused to publicly admit. These facts are not positional judgments but real ledgers; not ideological propositions but institutional costs.
These four "cognitive commonsenses" constitute the most unavoidable reality base in contemporary political discourse.
1. Long-term Trade Imbalances and Industrial Hollowing Cannot Be Solved by RhetoricThe United States has long endured massive trade deficits, with its manufacturing system continuously offshored, leading to the systematic collapse of the middle class and industrial workers. China has long dumped low-human-rights products. This is not "industrial upgrading" but a structural stripping of production capacity, systematically squeezing the growth space for younger generations.
Represented by Trump's "America is getting ripped off" or "taking advantage of America," this is an ironclad fact, yet it has sparked all kinds of opposing debates. Some say America brought it on itself, others claim globalization is fair, and some even call Trump an economic ignoramus. But no matter the noise, as an elected president, he must step up and act. So, what's the plan? Ditch "political correctness" and the so-called "truths" of traditional economics, start with "reciprocal tariffs," and pursue "reciprocal tariffs for negotiations abroad, light taxes and duties to boost vitality at home"—unleashing Americans’ life-organizing connective power!
2. Long-term Military Protection for Allies Cannot Be FreeThe U.S. has long provided near-free security protection to its allies (especially European NATO members). European NATO countries have significantly reduced military spending, directing more fiscal budgets toward pensions, healthcare, and universal welfare, while the U.S. bears the military costs of providing protection. In Trump's view, providing protection is fine, but protection fees must be collected.
Trump demands allies boost their own defense spending—especially amid the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2024, European NATO nations averaged just 1.8% of GDP on defense, far below the 2% pledge.
3. Diplomatic Rules Cannot Be Double StandardsPost-war international organizations (UN, WTO, NATO) have often become tools for other nations to profit from morals and procedures while restricting the U.S. In Trump's eyes, these organizations institutionalize the "moral high ground of the weak," limiting the strong who bear the costs.
Trump is a realist; in his view, negotiation power comes from strength, not morals or procedures. If you lack strength and cannot even guarantee your own national security, you shouldn't lecture the U.S. with "values" and "international law." This is why Trump belittles the UN, WTO, NATO, etc.
4. Immigration Rules Cannot Be One-Way OpenThe U.S. has long maintained an open immigration policy, but this openness has been exploited, leading to uncontrolled illegal immigration, straining social resources, and impacting citizens' livelihoods. Trump emphasizes strict immigration controls to protect domestic jobs and security.
Trump is not an anomaly of the system; he is a symptom of the collapse of the old ideological and discursive order.
He is not only the “old child” who dares to pierce the papered-over window and strip away the emperor’s new clothes; he is also the one trying to install double-glazed windows—transparent and immediately clear, yet solid and leaving no place to hide.
He is attempting to treat a century-long systemic disease and to solve real problems. Such an effort inherently requires cooperation.
Instead, it has been met with frenzied denunciation from the old order, which turns him into the problem itself—attacking him, ridiculing him, and whipping up collective outrage.
And so, the so-called “Trump Syndrome” has come to permeate everything.
Conclusion: Trump's Commonsenses Pierce the "Window Paper"These four commonsenses pierce the "window paper" of old ideologies: The world is not black-and-white but a ledger of costs and benefits.
Globalization is not a universal justice mechanism but a structural benefit allocation mechanism.
Rules are not value-neutral but cost-sharing devices.
Elite narratives are not reality itself but delayed expressions of reality.
Politics is not moral competition but structural adjustment engineering.
For seventy years post-war, Europe and the West built an institutional illusion system almost without facing costs; Trump represents not a return to old order but forcing the world to acknowledge: The old order can no longer operate at the original price.
In short, boldly upholding Trump's commonsenses: Is not civilizational regression, But reality reckoning. Is not rejecting order, But demanding new order!
Trump is not the problem; the old ideological discourse system is the problem.
Archer Hong QianVancouver, January 20, 2026
附录：零落的黄色枫叶
投资内容创作者
要理解川普为什么对全球加关税、不断退群、对格陵兰岛提出诉求，不断抨击欧洲等一系列行为，就要先了解一下川普是如何看待这个世界的。在川普的世界观里，战后建立起来的这套国际秩序，发展到现在对美国是不公平的，而且是长期系统性不公平。这套秩序现在已经无法继续维持下去了。
一、美国长期承受巨额贸易逆差。美国平均关税世界最低，买别国的商品远多于别国买美国的商品，从而造成制造业外流、产业空心化，中产阶级塌陷，而华盛顿的精英却把这称为“全球化红利”。在川普看来，这不是红利，而是吃了大亏。美国的贸易赤字越大，吃亏越多。
二、美国工人的工作岗位被系统性外包。全球化和离岸生产，让美国消费者买到了便宜商品，却让中西部失去了制造业、技术和尊严。金融和科技精英获益巨大，而普通工人则被抛弃。这一条对于川普的基本盘MAGA群体特别重要，因为他们恰恰是全球化的受害者。
三、美国向盟友（特别是北约的欧洲盟友）提供长期几乎免费的安全保护。欧洲的北约成员国大幅压低军费，把更多的财政预算投向退休金、医疗和全民福利，而美国则承担了提供保护的军事成本。在川普看来，提供保护可以，但保护费也是要收的。
四、川普是个现实主义者，在川普看来，谈判权来自力量，而不是道德或程序。如果你没有实力、连自己的国防安全都不能保证，就不该用“价值”和“国际法”来对美国说教。这也是为什么川普轻视联合国、WTO、北约等机构的原因。在他眼里，这些国际组织把“弱者的道德高位”制度化了，却限制了真正承担成本的强者。
理解了以上四点，就知道川普要做的事，那就是把美国与欧洲盟友之间长期被模糊和掩盖的一笔账，公开算清楚，把价格摊在桌面上。也就是说，川普不是在“破坏现有秩序”，而是在给旧秩序重新定价。
战后七十多年，欧洲享受了一个历史上极罕见、几乎可以说是异常状态的结构：国防安全几乎是免费的，福利可以不断扩张，道德可以高举，而真正的执行成本由别人承担。这个“别人”，恰恰是美国。川普并没有发明这种不对称关系，他只是拒绝继续为它买单。
在川普想重塑的新世界秩序里，美国的市场不再是单边开放的，必须遵循对等开放原则。美国提供的安保不再是公共产品，而是一项服务，必须按价值付费；联盟不再是价值共同体，也必须是客户关系，要公平交易；国际组织不再是美国承担绝大部分成本，却成了其它国家用道德和程序获利、限制美国的工具。现在一切都要遵循实力和国家利益原则。在新的国际秩序里，美国仍居于顶端，但一切都要重新定价。