美国关税分析报告：物价上涨，工作流失，GDP下降

美国政府对进口的中国物品实施关税已有6年，究竟效果如何？见来自tax foundation 的分析报告，题为“Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs”。

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/）

The Tax Foundation, which was organized in 1937, is an international research think tank based in Washington, D.C. that collects data and publishes research studies on U.S. tax policies at both the federal and state levels. 

分析报告提要如下。

The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades.

川普政府从中国进口美国的货物，每年获得近800亿美金的收入。

The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion.

拜登政府在川普政府的基础上，增加关税，获得36亿美元额外款项，使得关税收入超过800亿。

We estimate the Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

由于关税，美国GDP下降0.2%，损失142000个工作。

Altogether, the trade war policies currently in place add up to $79 billion in tariffs based on trade levels at the time of tariff implementation and excluding behavioral and dynamic effects.

Before accounting for behavioral effects, the $79 billion in higher tariffs amounts to an average annual tax increase on US households of $625. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average. Both estimates understate the cost to US households because they do not factor in the lost output, lower incomes, and loss in consumer choice the tariffs have caused.

关税使美国每个家庭每年多交625美元的税。

Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war.

川普扬言：如当选将加大关税力度，再加关税于5240亿货品。其结果将使美国GDP下降0.8%。

Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.

总结：物价上涨，生产下降，工作减少，经济受到负面影响。

【本博评论】

美国人一向反对增税。当年老布什一句Read my lips: no new taxes 使自己败选。现在不分党派，建国同志与振华同志，都打着抑制中国的旗号增加关税。能否抑制中国暂且不论，看来关税这玩意儿挺不错：政府有额外收入，一般选民购物时多花银子，还说不出话来。有道是：隐形加税没麻烦，白宫有钱心中不慌，无需在国会吵来吵去，还站在政治正确的制高点上。美式割韭菜，高！实在是高！