Financial flourishing and demographic floundering

Financial flourishing and demographic floundering 

Many people have made insightful predictions about the long term future of the modern society. An early example is National life and character: A forecast by Charles Pearson. It was published in 1893. The book had tremendous influence on Australia immigration policy at that time. From today’s perspective, it has become quite obvious. The fertility rate in Canada is 1.3, in Australia is 1.6. In US, its fertility has dropped sharply to 1.6 after 2008, when the fertility was around 2. 

Why does economy continue to grow after demographic decline? Essentially, the drop of fertility reduces the number of children needing care. This frees up more adults for monetary activity.

Even nominal economic activity per capita has stopped growing in some countries. Canada’s GDP per capita is flat in the last decade. Yet the financial markets continue to show stellar returns. Why?

An important reason is the continuing increase in pension deductions. With the increase of pension deductions, more money flows into the stock markets. At the same time, less resources are available for ordinary people. This is why financial markets keep flourishing while demography is floundering.

As long as the financial elites continue to dominate the world, the financial markets may have a lot of potential, until the majority of people are squeezed dry. Will the majority of people revolt? 

Reference

1. A note on National life and character: A forecast by Charles Pearson

https://blog.creaders.net/u/10630/201908/355332.html

2. The broad impacts of pension systems

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357717339_On_the_Broad_Impacts_of_Pension_Systems